Single figure could prove to be death knell for Albo: PVO (2024)

Houston, we have a problem!

That is surely the sentiment echoing around the Labor Party caucus today, following the release of an opinion poll showing Peter Dutton as the preferred PM over Anthony Albanese.

That's the same Dutton we're constantly being told is unelectable and deeply unpopular.

Now when he's compared to Albanese he's the preferred candidate. What does that say about how the PM is tracking?

But the bad news for Albo doesn't stop there. Labor's primary vote is in the toilet, down to just 28 per cent - a new low for this government.

For context, Labor's primary vote at the last election was 32.6 per cent and that only helped it secure the narrowest of parliamentary majorities.

And whether it's managing the economy, national security or the cost of living crisis, those polled list Dutton as better able to look after each issue than the PM is capable of doing.

You can trace the crisis in Labor's leadership back to Albo's poor handling of the Voice referendum.

He prioritised the issue ahead of managing a slumping economy right when voters were increasingly under pressure from higher mortgage payments and grocery bills.

Now he's slap bang in the middle of a cost of living crisis, a housing crisis, fears around sky high immigration and an economy that is tanking while interest rates remain stubbornly high.

Each of them issues that voters don't rate him as adept at handling.

Usually when an Opposition Leader overtakes a PM as the preferred PM it is a death knell for a government.

It can even spell the end for the PM before they even get to an election, if there are obvious contenders to take over waiting in the wings.

When Kevin Rudd overtook John Howard as the preferred PM the Labor leader started measuring up the new curtains in The Lodge.

When Tony Abbott overtook Julia Gillard she lost the Labor leadership. When Abbott passed Rudd 2.0 the Coalition knew the election was theirs for the taking.

Like Dutton, Abbott was another opposition leader billed as unelectable.

Bill Shorten never rose to dominate the preferred PM rating, which perhaps explains why he fell short at two elections before Labor turned to Albanese.

Albo eventually surpassed Scott Morrison as preferred PM, by which point there was no coming back for the portfolio collecting ex-PM.

To be sure, Dutton's lead is as narrow as you get - ahead of Albo as the preferred PM by just 36 per cent to 35 per cent.

Meanwhile, 29 per cent of voters who can't even bring themselves to prefer either candidate.

And it is the first time Dutton has edged in front, in just the one Resolve opinion poll.

Newspoll, for example, still had Albo in front the last time it tested the mood of voters.

But if the rise of Dutton's personal ratings holds up, and even sees him extend his lead in the months to come, it will stoke leadership tensions within Labor and could lead to the first victory by a first term opposition leader against a first term government since 1931.

It could also delay Labor calling an early election, hopeful of turning fortunes around over the summer before facing voters in the flat half of 2025.

Is it possible Albo doesn't even make it to the election? Rolled by nervous colleagues who have decided he's a dead leader walking?

Safe (for now)

Before anyone opposed to the Labor government and down on Albanese's performance gets too hopeful, here is why I think he's safe in his job (for now) and unlikely to lose the next election despite the failings so clearly on display.

Internally, Albanese has his party room numbers neatly stitched up. The left wing factional warrior has isolated the only member of the Left capable of knocking him off. Tanya Plibersek doesn't have the backing of her faction.

In the Right, the only viable alternative right now is Treasurer Jim Chalmers. But he isn't particularly liked within the factional right, especially within the powerful NSW right. In fact, they loathe him.

And as Treasurer, Chalmers has presided over the economy at a time when voters doesn't think the government is doing a particularly good job on that front.

In short, Albo's failures on these core issues are Chalmers' fault too. A shared responsibility that undermines the argument for replacing one dud with another.

As for the election, even if Albanese's popularity continues to decline, Dutton needs to overcome the pesky presence of the Teal MPs.

In their affluent, once blue-ribbon Liberal seats, their popularity as local MPs is sustained by musings on everything from climate change to diversity advocacy. Weak spots for Dutton in the eyes of Teal voters.

While it is easy to see Labor's 78 seat majority collapsing all the way down into the high 60s, thereby taking away the government's majority, it is hard to see the Coalition lifting its current 54 seats to more than somewhere in the mid 60s.

That would leave Labor with a larger number of MPs in the lower house and therefore able to argue that it is better placed to form minority government, with the backing of the Greens and some of the Teal MPs too.

It would be an ugly win and a precursor to a destabilising three-year second term for Labor.

But it is hard to see Dutton doing any better than such an outcome at the next election.

And if Labor's scare campaign on nuclear power bites, that of itself could be enough to convince unhappy voters to reluctantly give the government a second chance.

The problem for Albo is that a narrow win such as the one mentioned above, all but guarantees that he won't survive his second term as PM.

He'll be dependent on the Greens to govern, which is hardly an antidote to voter dissatisfaction on Labor's economic management credentials.

And a defeat of this kind for Dutton would be seen as good enough to give him a second chance, the same way Abbott got a second chance after narrowly losing the 2010 election to Gillard. Three years later he became PM.

Are we about to witness history repeating itself? Perhaps, unless the government has a cunning plan to pull itself out of the quagmire it finds itself in.